Technical Analysis

EURUSD moves back above 100 hour MA

EURUSD is back above the 100 hour MA but w/ more work left

The fall in the US dollar , has now pushed the EURUSD above its 100 hour MA at 1.05837. The price also moved back into the up and down trading range that had been the “value area” from December 13 until earlier this week.

That area comes in between 1.0584 up to 1.0694.

Yes, there were extreme breaks above and below those levels going back to December 13, and the rotation lower this week definitely put the sellers more in control. However, the move back into the range today, negates that break. However, there is still more work to be done.

Weaker wage data and a much weaker Non-manufacturing PMI contributed to the move back to the upside today (and the USD selling).

The “more work” is a move back above the higher 200 hour MA currently at 1.0619.

Recall from Wednesday and again yesterday, the price stalled against what was near converged 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines in the chart above). There were three separate tests of those MAs, and each time sellers leaned and pushed lower. Yesterday, the selling picked up more momentum.

The run to the downside over the last day or so, separated those MAs out.

The lower 100 hour MA has not been broken and it is now a close risk/bias defining level. The 200 hour MA still needs to be broken – and stay broken – to increase the bullish bias. The market will also be looking for the highs from Wednesday and Thursday up to 1.0634 to be broken to help increase the bullish bias.

So there is a shift back into the “value area” from a more bearish bias below it. However, getting and staying above the 200 hour MA still needs to be broken to give the buyers more confidence technically.

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