Technical Analysis

EURJPY remains below 100 hour MA after volatile up and down day

EURJPY below the 100 hour MA

The EURJPY – like the USDJPY and other JPY pairs – have experienced a volatile up and down ride today after the BOJ meeting yielded no change in policy, but “the market” remains intent on forcing the central banks hand at some point in the future.

The initial squeeze to the upside on the news, took the price barreling through the 100 and 200 hour moving averages and also the 200 day moving average (at 140.715). The high price extended to 141.684 before starting the rotation back to the downside. Once the 200 hour moving average was rebroken near the 140.42 level, the buyers had lost their advantage, and the price continued lower.

In the early US session, the momentum to the downside continued with the break of the 100 hour moving average at 139.308 (blue line in the chart above). The price has been able to stay below that falling 100 hour moving average over the last four trading hours. Stay below is more bearish.

Although the price is well off its highs (the New York session low reached 138.856), it still remains above its closing level from yesterday at 138.245. Getting to and through that level is a target.

Also on the downside, there is a swing area (see red numbered circle in the chart above) between 137.84 and 138.17. That area comes ahead of the extreme low from January 3 which reached down to 137.358.

Technically, stay below the 100 hour moving average keeps the sellers firmly in control. IT is up to the buyers to push above that MA line.

On a move above it would soften the sellers control but would still require more work from the buyers to take back more control. The highs from yesterday at 139.61 and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from last week’s high at 139.853 would be the minimum targets needed for the buyers to take back more control. Absent that, and they really are not winning.

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