Technical Analysis

ECB’s Holzmann endorses another 75 bps rate hike in December

  • No sign that core inflation is reducing in the euro area
  • Expects only a flattening of growth, or a mild recession
  • Another big rate hike would “give a strong signal about our determination”
  • But still “open to changing my mind” based on next economic projections
  • Interest rates would need to rise to the point where they “cause pain”
  • Full interview (may be gated)

Well, this is interesting as we are starting to see some differing opinions put out by ECB policymakers. In case you missed it, Lane said that the case for a 75 bps rate hike next month is “no longer there” yesterday here. That could tee up a clash of votes between policymakers in December but in any case, it will definitely mark a less hawkish step than in October at least.

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