Technical Analysis

Dow Jones/WSJ reports economists’ 63% probability on a US recession in the next 12 months

A survey of economists in the Wall Street Journal. The gist of the expectation of recession is that expectations are that continued Federal Reserve rate hikes will mean higher unemployment and a downturn in the economy. Summed up by:

  • “‘Soft landing’ will likely remain a mythical outcome that never actually comes to pass,” said Daniil Manaenkov, an economist at the University of Michigan.

From the report (gated):

  • 63% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 49% in July’s survey
  • GDP will contract at a 0.2% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023 and shrink 0.1% in the second quarter
  • nonfarm payrolls will decline by 34,000 a month on average in the second quarter and 38,000 in the third quarter

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