Technical Analysis

Don’t sleep on today’s US PPI report

In general, traders can mostly ignore the monthly PPI data. It’s a noisy reading on pipeline inflation and doesn’t always flow through to CPI in ways that are easy to predict.

That’s not the case right now. Last month’s reading on PPI caused the largest move I’ve seen on the release and it was released after CPI. In general, it’s more of a factor when it’s released before CPI and that’s the case this month.

Notably, the big move after last month’s report was subsequently faded so that’s a good bet to be the playbook again if there’s a sizeable market move. The consensus is +7.2% y/y on the headline and +5.9% y/y ex-food and energy.

The numbers are out at the bottom of the hour.

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