Technical Analysis

Dollar stays little changed as overall market mood stays more tepid

European stocks are lower in playing catch up to the losses in Wall Street yesterday, with US futures not hinting at much so far on the day. S&P 500 futures are up 1 point, or 0.02%, so that isn’t giving much for traders to work with. Meanwhile, Treasury yields were higher earlier on but have come back down a bit with 10-year yields now down 0.9 bps to 3.566% – the high earlier reached 3.607%.

That said, yields are still keeping above the key level noted here and that remains a major spot to watch in terms of broader market sentiment this week. The retreat in yields and rejection at a key near-term technical level has seen USD/JPY pull back from 137.45 to 136.60 levels now, down just about 0.1% on the day. The dollar is more mixed in general, with light changes being observed.

EUR/USD is hovering near 1.0500 as buyers just managed to keep a defense of its 100-hour moving average so far today:

For now, buyers are still in near-term control but there is some pushback in other dollar pairs to suggest that the selling momentum in the greenback has significantly waned to start the new week.

GBP/USD is also now trading just below its own 100-hour moving average (seen at 1.2188) and buyers will have to do some work in defending the break above its 200-day moving average from last week:

The pair is down 0.2% to 1.2160 levels currently with the 200-day moving average (blue line) seen at 1.2135.

Meanwhile, AUD/USD is up 0.3% following the RBA policy decision earlier but hasn’t gotten much appetite to chase any further upside for now. The more tepid risk mood is certainly giving room for trepidation with dollar sentiment also not hinting at much so far today.

On the daily chart, the pair is just building off a bounce from its 100-day moving average (red line), seen at 0.6683, and is holding just above 0.6700 for now. However, the near-term bias is now favouring sellers and it would require buyers to push back above the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 0.6778 and 0.6748 respectively to recapture the upside bias.

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