Technical Analysis

Dollar poised to wrap up its worst month in over a decade

The dollar is sitting a touch lower today, after some mixed flows so far this week. There have been plenty of moving parts in consideration, ranging from China headlines – which went from protest fears to re-opening optimism – to softer inflation in Europe, and not forgetting month-end flows.

Adding to that is a peculiar bid in the greenback and bond selling during the US session for two days in a row now. In any case, that is not enough to make up for an over 4% drop in the dollar index in November as things stand:

I’m no big fan of the dollar index (DXY) in general, since it very much points to a similar picture as seen with EUR/USD. The index ran into support from its 200-day moving average (blue line) this week and perhaps that is a reason for sellers taking a breather. You can also throw month-end flows into the mix and it is tough to really get a firm answer.

But it is a reflection of how things are going with EUR/USD as well:

The pair is struggling to firmly break above its 200-day moving average (blue line) and price action is seen keeping below that today as well. The key level is seen at 1.0372 for today.

All of this points to the notion that while the dollar has experienced one of its worst months in recent memory, there are some key levels at play currently which will carry over to December. That will keep traders on edge especially with the US non-farm payrolls report coming up later this week before a couple more key risk events ahead of the FOMC meeting on 14 December.

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