Technical Analysis

Dollar falls to fresh lows on the day

Risk tones are faring better while Treasury yields are a little lower and that is pinning the dollar down as we get stuck into European morning trade today. It’s going to be tough to look into the moves right now as we have seen them reverse in US trading for two days in a row already this week.

Month-end flows are arguably a factor but here’s a look at the technicals as well to try and understand better the price action today, before we get to Fed chair Powell’s speech later on.

EUR/USD is up 0.5% to 1.0380 but faces key resistance in the form of its 200-day moving average (blue line) at 1.0372 with large option expiries also potentially a factor at 1.0370-80 today. That might keep price action somewhat anchored but again, it is all about looking at the key resistance level above and month-end flows could make it tricky in the session ahead.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY is flattish around 138.68 currently and still playing around the levels mentioned here earlier.

GBP/USD is up 0.4% to 1.2000 but price action is still very much caught in between its key daily moving averages in the bigger picture:

In the short-term, there is some minor support closer to 1.1950 with resistance sitting up there in the form of its 100-hour moving average at 1.2046 currently.

Elsewhere, USD/CAD is down 0.3% to 1.3530 while AUD/USD is up 0.6% to 0.6730 as risk sentiment holds up. The latter is still facing resistance from its 61.8 Fib retracement level at 0.6767 but at least working its way back above its 100-day moving average (red line) at 0.6685:

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