Technical Analysis

Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE price index +3.4% vs +3.9% prior

  • November core inflation ran at an annualized pace of 3.4% vs 3.9% prior

There’s a lively debate about where US inflation will settle: At the 2% target or a stubbornly high 4%. This metric is already running below 4% after hitting 7.2% in June, so that’s a good sign but it will take awhile to get where it needs to be consistently. The 12 month trimmed mean fell to 4.6% from 4.7%.

Looking through the data, I have to imagine that ‘pleasure boats’ won’t be an inflationary impulse for much longer.

Meanwhile, when you look at the largest contributors to overall inflation, it’s striking how much of it is food.

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