Technical Analysis

CIBC now sees the Bank of Canada hiking 25 basis points this month


Today’s jobs report showed the Canadian economy adding 104K jobs in December, far more than the 5K consensus.

That follows a strong November CPI report and has the OIS market pricing in a 72% chance of another 25 bps hike at the January 25 meeting. CIBC shifted its call to a 25 bps hike after the data.

“The Canadian labour market remains much stronger than expected and (so far) apparently
resilient to rapidly rising interest rates. While strong hiring at least partly reflects companies needing to compensate for
increased staff absenteeism, the tick down in the unemployment rate close to its record low sees us now forecasting a
final 25bp hike from the Bank of Canada at its meeting later this month.”

They are slightly confused by the report with 35K jobs gains in construction in a sector that’s undoubtedly suffering from the housing downturn. Hours worked were also only up 0.1% despite the jump in jobs.

USD/CAD today has fallen 89 pips to 1.3433 though that’s only about half the gain of NZD and AUD.

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