Technical Analysis

China Beige Book says China economy dropped significantly in Q4, Q1 recovery unlikely

China Beige Book International (CBBI) adapts methodology used by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book”

  • its a quarterly report
  • using quantitative & qualitative data to track conditions within the Chinese economy

The firm’s latest China Beige Book shows that China’s manufacturing, services, and real estate sectors all experienced significant declines in Q4 2022, citing Covid-19 disruptions.

  • CBBI says that its indexes tracking earnings, sales, and employment at manufacturing and service companies declined in Q4 2022 compared to the prior quarter and a year earlier
  • Metrics for the real estate market, such as sales and prices, fell almost to record lows
  • CBBI said China’s GDP probably decreased in real terms in Q4 y/y and was up only 2% for 2022 as a whole.

CBBI comment:

  • “With the ongoing Covid tidal wave, investment sliding to a 10-quarter low, and new orders continuing to get battered, a meaningful first-quarter recovery is increasingly unrealistic”

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