Technical Analysis

Byron Wien is back with his 2023 list of 10 surprises for the year

What would a new year be without 10 new surprises from Blackstone’s Byron Wien, who now makes the list with chief investment strategist Joe Zidle?

I’ve covered this one for more than a decade and it always makes for interesting discussions.

To start, here is his list for last year, which was considerably better than the year before where I’d say he got 2 of 10 right. He defines ‘surprises’ as events that a normal investor would only assign a one-in-three chance of taking place.

  1. The S&P 500 is flat in 2022 and value outperforms growth
  2. CPI rises 4.5% for 2022 and persistent inflation becomes the dominant theme
  3. Yield on the 10-year note rises to 2.75%
  4. Group meetings and conventions return to pre-pandemic levels
  5. China curbs speculative investment in real estate
  6. The price of gold rallies by 20%, crypto continues to gain share
  7. Crude rises above $100 per barrel
  8. Nuclear power has a renaissance
  9. Government enforces new ESG reporting standards
  10. US can’t buy enough lithium to power planned electric vehicles

Some of those are bland but he had a great batting average and his main mistake was under-estimating how far some of his themes would run. It’s also a reminder of just how surprising 2022 was.

Now for the 2023 list, which is unfortunately far more ‘consensus’ than ‘surprise’.

  1. There are new headliner names on 2024 Presidential tickets
  2. Fed remains in a tug-of-war with inflation
  3. Fed overstays its time in restrictive territory, there’s a mild recession
  4. The stock market bottoms in mid-2023
  5. MMT is discredited because deficits prove to be inflationary
  6. The Fed remains more hawkish than other central banks and the dollar stays strong, creating ‘generational opportunity’ for USD-holders to invest in Europe and Japan
  7. China edges towards 5.5% growth, with positive implications for real assets and commodities
  8. WTI touches $50 this year
  9. Ceasefire in H2 in Ukraine and negotiations begin
  10. Elon gets Twitter back on the path to recovery by year end

Read the full list here.

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