Technical Analysis

BOE Pill: Further rate action likely to be required to ensure inflation will return to 2%

BOEs Pill speaking and says:

  • further action is likely to be required to ensure inflation will return sustainably to 2% target
  • does not anticipate raising bank rate to levels price by markets ahead of November monetary policy report.

The market had the implied bank rate peaking at around 5.25% in the second half of next year prior to the November 3 rate hike of 75 basis points (expectations are lower now). The Bank of England raised rates to 3.0% on November 3. A Reuters poll released earlier today pegged expectations for the December meeting at a 50 basis point hike to 3.5% (see report here)

The GBPUSD has reached the midpoint of the 2022 trading range at 1.20499. The high price extended to 1.20798. The current price is back testing the 50% midpoint as I type.

In the UK debt market, the 10 year note yield moved to 3% today and below the 100 day MA at 3.016%.. The high yield reached 4.632% back on October 12 (see chart below)

UK 10 year yield

The UK two year yield is at 3.105%. It is approaching its 100 day moving average at 2.934%. At 100 hour moving average has been a good support level going back in time.

UK to year yield

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