Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Carolyn Rogers appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance
We heard from Rogers on Tuesday (local CAD
CAD
The Canadian dollar (CAD) is the official currency of Canada and at the time of writing is the fifth most-held reserve currency in the world behind only the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.The CAD is commonly referred to as the Loonie by forex analysts and traders. At the time of writing, the CAD accounts for 2% of all global currency reserves.Its appeal is strong among central banking authorities given Canada’s economic strength, sovereignty, and historic stability.Originally introduced in 1858, the CAD has since its inception maintained a strong tie to the US dollar.This is due to the high degree of trade between the two countries, with the United States receiving the vast majority of Canadian exports, with Canada in turn importing over half of its goods from its southern neighbor. For brief periods of time the CAD has been fixed to the US dollar over its history. Presently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is responsible for intervening to maintain the value of the currency.What Factors Affect the CAD?Forex traders tune into a variety of factors and metrics when trading the CAD. The value of the CAD is strongly correlated to the strength of global commodity prices such as oil.As a producer and exporter of oil and other commodities, Canada benefits from stronger crude oil prices. When commodity prices rise, Canada’s terms of trade also generally improve, and vice versa.Furthermore, a number of domestic factors can also influence the CAD. This includes interest rates set by the BoC, domestic inflation rates, trade surpluses, and foreign investment & direct payments.
The Canadian dollar (CAD) is the official currency of Canada and at the time of writing is the fifth most-held reserve currency in the world behind only the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.The CAD is commonly referred to as the Loonie by forex analysts and traders. At the time of writing, the CAD accounts for 2% of all global currency reserves.Its appeal is strong among central banking authorities given Canada’s economic strength, sovereignty, and historic stability.Originally introduced in 1858, the CAD has since its inception maintained a strong tie to the US dollar.This is due to the high degree of trade between the two countries, with the United States receiving the vast majority of Canadian exports, with Canada in turn importing over half of its goods from its southern neighbor. For brief periods of time the CAD has been fixed to the US dollar over its history. Presently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is responsible for intervening to maintain the value of the currency.What Factors Affect the CAD?Forex traders tune into a variety of factors and metrics when trading the CAD. The value of the CAD is strongly correlated to the strength of global commodity prices such as oil.As a producer and exporter of oil and other commodities, Canada benefits from stronger crude oil prices. When commodity prices rise, Canada’s terms of trade also generally improve, and vice versa.Furthermore, a number of domestic factors can also influence the CAD. This includes interest rates set by the BoC, domestic inflation rates, trade surpluses, and foreign investment & direct payments. Read this Term time):
And, the knives are out for the housing sector says Rogers:
we need lower house prices to restore balance to housing market
We can expect more of the same from Macklem and Rogers at this testimony.
Macklem:
We expect our policy rate will need to rise further
How much further policy rates would need to rise will depend on how monetary policy is working to slow demand
Inflation
Inflation
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market. Read this Term in Canada remains high and broad-based, reflecting large increases in both goods and services prices
We have yet to see a generalized decline in price pressures
Canadian economy is still in excess demand and it’s overheated
Higher interest rates are beginning to weigh on growth
Effects of higher rates will take time to spread through the economy
Expect growth will stall in the next few quarters; once we get through this slowdown, growth will pick up
We are trying to balance the risks of under- and over-tightening
The tightening phase will come to an end, and we are getting closer, but we are not there yet
with inflation so far above our target we are particularly concerned about the upside risks
BoC balance sheet peaked in March 2021 at CAD575bn, as of last week it was around CAD 415bn, a drops of around 28%
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