Technical Analysis

Bank of England to hike by 50bp to 4% today (that’s consensus, with a risk of +25)

The Bank of England announcement is due on Thursday, 2 February 2023 at 1200 GMT (7am US ET) with Governor Bailey’s news conference following a half hour later.

  • +50bp to 4% is the widely expected
  • there is a non-negligible risk of +25

Analysts at Barclays concur, +50bp today followed by +25 hikes in both March and May.

After the announcement attention will very quickly shift to the BoE commentary around the decision, and what can be gleaned on forward guidance. The Bank is thought to be close to the end of this hiking cycle. Around 4.5% is expected to be the terminal rate (many are expecting lower though, that’s not a unanimous call).

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