Technical Analysis

Australian retail sales data due today – “risk firmly to the downside”


Australian retail sales data are due at 0030 GMT (this is 1930 US ET and 11.30am in Sydney):

Snippet from National Australia Bank’s preview:

  • Shifting seasonal patterns put the risk firmly to the downside in our view, and NAB pencils in a -1.0%, but with high uncertainty.
  • Black Friday pulling spending into November drove the 1.4% m/m November print, and the converse should weigh on the December number even amid underlying resilience in spending.
  • If we do get a milder decline in December, watch for downward revisions to the November number.

Via Westpac:

  • Our Westpac Card Tracker and other measures point to conditions
    remaining buoyant through Dec. That said, retail components were
    softer with gains in card activity centring non-retail segments
    like travel and recreational services. The high weighting of food
    (accounting for just over half of retail) also looks to have been a drag,
    some of which may be price-related.
  • On balance we expect nominal
    sales to decline 0.3% in Dec. Note that the final Dec release,
    including Q4 real retail sales estimates, will be published on Feb 6.

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