Technical Analysis

AUDUSD tumbles back toward its 200 hour moving average and finds support buyers

AUDUSD falls to the 200 hour MA

The AUDUSD moved higher in a choppy fashion after the RBA interest rate decision today. The central bank raised rates by 25 basis points as expected.

The AUDUSD price initially moved lower but then found a footing and extended above its 100 hour moving average at 0.64387, and a swing area between 0.64318 at 0.6451. The high price reached 0.6463 before rotating back below the 100 hour moving average just ahead of the 10 AM data.

The JOLTs report disappointed especially after the sharp 1 million decline in job openings last month (it was revised to something less this month). The employment picture remains tight especially in the service sector.

As a result, the AUDUSD fell back down toward its 200 hour moving average currently at 0.6385. The low price reached 0.63849 and has seen a modest bounce. However as I type, the price is retesting that moving average level. A break below would have traders looking toward the low of a swing area near 0.6363. Key level for both buyers and sellers. Yesterday the price low did find buyers against the 200 hour moving average on 3 separate hourly bars before rotating to the upside.

A move below will target the low from yesterday and also the low of a swing area between 0.6363. Move below that would have traders looking toward the 50% of the move up from the October low. That level comes in at 0.63455.

US stocks are trading to new session lows:

  • Dow industrial average is down 163 points at -0.5% at 32568
  • S&P index is down 16.56 points or -0.43% at 3855.40
  • NASDAQ index is down -57.6 points at -0.52% at 10930.80
  • Russell 2000 is up 4.7 points or 0.26% at 1851.60

In the US debt market the sharp yields declines have seen those declines eroded:

  • 2 year yield 4.515%, up 1.5 basis points. The low yield reached 4.404%.
  • 5 year yield 4.247, unchanged. The low yield reached 4.104%.
  • 10 year yield 4.052%, -2.3 basis points. The low today reached 3.92%
  • 30 year yield 4.135%, -7.0 basis points. The low reached 4.055%

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