Technical Analysis

AUD traders – Westpac is forecasting a +50bp rate hike from the RBA next week (November 1)

The revised forecast from WPAC

  • We now expect the Reserve Bank Board to raise the cash rate by 50 basis points in November for a terminal rate of 3.85% by March, revised up from 3.6%.

comes after the surge in the Australian inflation rate reported yesterday:

More from yesterday re this:

I also posted yesterday opposite views:


  • lift their RBA cash rate peak to 3.85% (from 3.60%)
  • 50bps hike in November is possible, but retain their call for 25bps
  • “the RBA will prefer to hike more frequently than shift back to 50bp given the reasoning behind the decision to go 25bp in October.”


  • see a +25bp at the November meeting
  • add in a +25bp in December in the wake of the inflation data, CBA were previously at an ‘on hold’ December forecast

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe – speaks next week following the meeting:

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