Technical Analysis

A 50bp FOMC rate hike today is the overwhelming consensus – but here’s what comes next


The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement today (at 1900 GMT) and Powell’s news conference following (1930 GMT) are the focus.

Earlier previews:

  • Timiraos: Fed on track for 50 bps tomorrow but lower inflation could complicate 5% target

This snippet now is via ABN Amro on what they expect in Q1 of the new year ahead:

  • We expect the Fed to hike rates a further 50bp in December
  • and 25bp hikes in Feb & March
  • with the upper bound to peak at 5%
  • Subsequently, we expect the Fed to pause, assuming inflation continues moving lower and the labor market deteriorates.

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